By 2050, nearly 10 billion people will need access to healthy and sustainably produced food. Yet today, the global food system is responsible for about a quarter of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the use of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus already exceeds safe planetary limits. This is why food systems must navigate trade-offs between minimizing environmental impact and meeting the growing demand for food production. As the demand for crops and animal products continues to grow, environmental pressures will intensify further, making it clear that a major transformation of how we produce and consume food is essential.
Explore how the way we grow and consume food affects the planet, from nutrient cycles and livestock systems to the impact of our daily dinner choices.
Towards Sustainable Farming Systems
The global food system must guarantee sufficient food production while reducing the environmental impacts caused by industrial agriculture. In this context, organic and agro-ecological approaches offer promising pathways. Organic farming avoids synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, relying instead on natural processes such as nitrogen-fixing crops, nutrient recycling, and integrating livestock into the system. However, the question remains: can these systems truly feed the world?
Recent studies suggest that organic agriculture could supply enough food for the global population in 2050 – but only if accompanied by significant changes in how we eat and manage resources.
The Nitrogen Dilemma
In conventional farming, synthetic fertilisers provide crops with easily available nitrogen, ensuring high yields. In organic systems, nitrogen comes only from natural sources. Legumes capture nitrogen from the air, and manure from livestock provides an essential nutrient source for the soil. This natural cycle, while environmentally safer, limits how much nitrogen is available for both crops and pasture for livestock.
When researchers modeled a fully organic world, they found that total food production would drop by roughly 36% due to nitrogen shortages – equivalent to a global deficit of 36 million tonnes of nitrogen. Without sufficient nitrogen, crops grow less, leading to lower yields and potential food insecurity, especially in vulnerable regions.
At the same time, some areas – particularly those rich in grazing livestock – have surplus nitrogen. If this excess could be transferred to regions with shortages, global food production could increase slightly. But moving organic nitrogen across long distances is logistically difficult and costly.
Redesigning Livestock Systems
Livestock are integral to sustainable farming, not only as a source of food but also as part of the nutrient cycle. In organic and pasture-based systems, animals convert grass and fodder into manure, which enriches soil fertility and supports crop growth, helping to close the nutrient loop. The challenge is to design livestock systems that are both environmentally sustainable and productive, while promoting animal health and welfare.
Organic livestock management focuses on harmonious interactions between land, plants, and animals. It avoids synthetic veterinary drugs and chemical inputs, relying instead on good husbandry practices, natural disease prevention, and locally adapted breeds. Animals are provided with access to pasture or open-air exercise areas, diets based on organic feed and roughage, and housing that allows natural behaviour, contributing to their overall health and reducing stress-related diseases.
Transitioning to organic livestock does not necessarily mean reducing all meat production. Models suggest that restructuring systems can reduce the land needed for feed while maintaining overall food availability. Manure management and innovative nitrogen recycling strategies, such as integrating cover crops or recovering nutrients from waste, further support both crop and livestock productivity.
These approaches align with sustainable development goals: they minimise environmental impact, enhance soil fertility, preserve biodiversity, and support animal welfare, all without relying on synthetic inputs.
The European Perspective
Europe offers an interesting case. Since World War II, the continent has intensified farming with heavy reliance on synthetic fertilisers and imports of protein-rich feed. This approach has increased yields but also caused large nitrogen losses to water, soil, and air, with about 77% of added nitrogen escaping instead of being used by crops.
An agro-ecological scenario for Europe in 2050 shows that it is technically possible to feed the population without synthetic fertilisers or imported feed, using only natural nitrogen sources. The key lies in three combined strategies:
- Changing diets and recycling human waste – eating less animal products and reusing nutrients from human excreta.
- Connecting livestock to crops – feeding animals only locally grown grass and fodder, so manure can naturally fertilise crops
- Agro-ecological farming – avoiding synthetic fertilisers and pesticides.
By 2050, Europe could meet its own food needs through agro-ecological and organic practices that rely on local resources rather than synthetic fertilisers, pesticides, or imported protein feed. Such a transformation would build on existing organic systems, which already cover about 8% of European farmland, and promote diets with less dairy and beef but moderate consumption of poultry and pork.
The approach emphasises local knowledge, balanced crop–livestock integration, and efficient nutrient recycling, leading to healthier diets and far less nitrogen and greenhouse gas pollution. This scenario demonstrates that a self-sufficient, low-impact European food system is physically achievable – and could even reduce environmental pressure on other regions by lowering Europe’s dependence on global agricultural imports.
What Your Dinner Plate Says About the Planet?
What sits on our dinner plate is more than just food – it tells a story about the planet and the systems that feed us. Every choice, from the type of protein we eat to the variety of crops we include, shapes how land is used, how animals are raised, and how communities around the world are affected.
Eating a meal that is diverse, balanced, and mindful of its origins can help protect farmland, support sustainable farming, and ensure that future generations have access to nutritious food. In this way, our daily meals become a personal act of stewardship, linking our individual habits to the health of ecosystems and the fairness of global food systems.
The Role of Innovation in Livestock Production
In this transition toward more sustainable and balanced farming systems, the STEP UP project contributes by actively evaluating and analysing Innovative Livestock Production Systems (ILPS). By integrating technology-driven methods and data-informed insights, ILPS aim to make livestock farming more efficient and environmentally responsible while improving animal welfare.
Through these assessments, STEP UP supports the evolution of traditional European Livestock Production Systems (ELPS) toward practices that are both climate-smart and resource-efficient – bridging innovation with sustainability in the future of food production.
A Holistic Path Forward
A fully organic world is not yet feasible, but expanding organic and agro-ecological farming to 20-60% of global cropland – combined with dietary shifts, waste reduction, and smarter nitrogen management – could feed people more fairly and sustainably.
Building such a food system will be technically and socially complex, but it offers a clear vision: a future where farming works with nature, not against it, ensuring both environmental health and human wellbeing.
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References
- Barbieri, P., Pellerin, S., Seufert, V. et al. Global option space for organic agriculture is delimited by nitrogen availability. Nat Food 2, 363–372 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00276-y
- Billen, G., Aguilera, E., Einarsson, R., Garnier, J., Gingrich, S., Grizzetti, B., Lassaletta, L., Le Noë, J., & Sanz-Cobena, A. (2021). Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity. One Earth, 4(6), 839–850. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.05.008
- Morais, T. G., Teixeira, R. F. M., Lauk, C., Theurl, M. C., Winiwarter, W., Mayer, A., Kaufmann, L., Haberl, H., Domingos, T., & Erb, K.-H. (2021). Agroecological measures and circular economy strategies to ensure sufficient nitrogen for sustainable farming. Global Environmental Change, 69, 102313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102313
